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"erreur_sup": 10.9107,
"erreur_inf": 7.0893
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
"parti": ["Parti socialiste"],
"intentions": 5,
"erreur_sup": 6.4551,
"erreur_inf": 3.5449
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"parti": ["France insoumise"],
"intentions": 8,
"erreur_sup": 9.8113,
"erreur_inf": 6.1887
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 1.5,
"erreur_sup": 2.3115,
"erreur_inf": 0.6885
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 29,
"erreur_sup": 32.0295,
"erreur_inf": 25.9705
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
"parti": ["Parti communiste"],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.9347,
"erreur_inf": 1.0653
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Pécresse sans Zemmour",
"sous_echantillon": 872.33,
"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 1.5,
"erreur_sup": 2.3066,
"erreur_inf": 0.6934
},
{
"candidat": "François Asselineau",
"parti": ["UPR"],
"intentions": 0.5,
"erreur_sup": 0.9681,
"erreur_inf": 0.0319
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{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
"parti": ["Debout la France"],
"intentions": 4,
"erreur_sup": 5.3004,
"erreur_inf": 2.6996
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 1.5,
"erreur_sup": 2.3066,
"erreur_inf": 0.6934
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"parti": ["France insoumise"],
"intentions": 8,
"erreur_sup": 9.8003,
"erreur_inf": 6.1997
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
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"intentions": 1.5,
"erreur_sup": 2.3066,
"erreur_inf": 0.6934
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
"parti": ["Parti socialiste"],
"intentions": 4,
"erreur_sup": 5.3004,
"erreur_inf": 2.6996
},
{
"candidat": "Arnaud Montebourg",
"parti": [""],
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"erreur_sup": 2.9291,
"erreur_inf": 1.0709
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
"parti": ["Parti communiste"],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.9291,
"erreur_inf": 1.0709
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
"parti": ["EE-LV"],
"intentions": 9,
"erreur_sup": 10.8991,
"erreur_inf": 7.1009
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 27,
"erreur_sup": 29.9462,
"erreur_inf": 24.0538
},
{
"candidat": "Valérie Pécresse",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 11,
"erreur_sup": 13.0764,
"erreur_inf": 8.9236
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 28,
"erreur_sup": 30.9796,
"erreur_inf": 25.0204
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]
},
{
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
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"intentions": 1.5,
"erreur_sup": 2.2971,
"erreur_inf": 0.7029
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{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
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"erreur_sup": 8.6732,
"erreur_inf": 5.3268
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{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
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"intentions": 18,
"erreur_sup": 20.5193,
"erreur_inf": 15.4807
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{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
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"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.9181,
"erreur_inf": 1.0819
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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"erreur_sup": 2.2971,
"erreur_inf": 0.7029
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{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
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"intentions": 1.5,
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"erreur_inf": 0.7029
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{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
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"erreur_sup": 1.6525,
"erreur_inf": 0.3475
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
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"erreur_sup": 5.285,
"erreur_inf": 2.715
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
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"intentions": 8,
"erreur_sup": 9.779,
"erreur_inf": 6.221
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{
"candidat": "François Asselineau",
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"intentions": 0.5,
"erreur_sup": 0.9625,
"erreur_inf": 0.0375
},
{
"candidat": "Xavier Bertrand",
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"erreur_sup": 14.131,
"erreur_inf": 9.869
},
{
"candidat": "Eric Zemmour",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 15,
"erreur_sup": 17.3415,
"erreur_inf": 12.6585
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"intentions": 26,
"erreur_sup": 28.8764,
"erreur_inf": 23.1236
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{
"candidat": "Arnaud Montebourg",
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"erreur_sup": 2.9181,
"erreur_inf": 1.0819
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]
},
{
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Arnaud Montebourg",
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"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.9235,
"erreur_inf": 1.0765
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{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
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"erreur_sup": 6.4377,
"erreur_inf": 3.5623
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{
"candidat": "François Asselineau",
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"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6563,
"erreur_inf": 0.3437
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"erreur_sup": 28.8935,
"erreur_inf": 23.1065
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
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"erreur_sup": 2.3018,
"erreur_inf": 0.6982
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
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"intentions": 7.5,
"erreur_sup": 9.2375,
"erreur_inf": 5.7625
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
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"erreur_inf": 6.2104
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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"erreur_sup": 3.5299,
"erreur_inf": 1.4701
},
{
"candidat": "Eric Zemmour",
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"intentions": 15,
"erreur_sup": 17.3554,
"erreur_inf": 12.6446
},
{
"candidat": "Valérie Pécresse",
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"erreur_sup": 10.8878,
"erreur_inf": 7.1122
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
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"erreur_sup": 3.5299,
"erreur_inf": 1.4701
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
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"erreur_sup": 1.6563,
"erreur_inf": 0.3437
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
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"erreur_inf": 0.3437
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
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]
},
{
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{
"candidat": "Eric Zemmour",
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"erreur_inf": 12.6304
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{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
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"erreur_sup": 3.5361,
"erreur_inf": 1.4639
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{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
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"erreur_sup": 21.6034,
"erreur_inf": 16.3966
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
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"erreur_sup": 2.3066,
"erreur_inf": 0.6934
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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"erreur_sup": 4.132,
"erreur_inf": 1.868
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
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"erreur_sup": 10.3507,
"erreur_inf": 6.6493
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{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
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"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6603,
"erreur_inf": 0.3397
},
{
"candidat": "Michel Barnier",
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"intentions": 8,
"erreur_sup": 9.8003,
"erreur_inf": 6.1997
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"intentions": 27,
"erreur_sup": 29.9462,
"erreur_inf": 24.0538
},
{
"candidat": "Arnaud Montebourg",
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"erreur_sup": 2.9291,
"erreur_inf": 1.0709
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
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"erreur_sup": 1.6603,
"erreur_inf": 0.3397
},
{
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"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
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"erreur_inf": 2.6996
},
{
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"erreur_sup": 9.2479,
"erreur_inf": 5.7521
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]
}
]
}
]
},
{
"id": "20220322_0325r_ifp",
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"media": true,
"commanditaire": "Paris Match, LCI, Sud Radio",
"lien": "http://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2022/mars/9504-rdp-ifop-paris-match-le-25-mars.pdf",
"echantillon": 1376,
"population": "Inscrits sur les listes électorales",
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{
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{
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"candidats": [
{
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"erreur_sup": 66.2906,
"erreur_inf": 59.7094
},
{
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"erreur_inf": 33.7094
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]
},
{
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{
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"erreur_inf": 61.4088
},
{
"candidat": "Eric Zemmour",
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"erreur_sup": 38.5912,
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]
},
{
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{
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"erreur_inf": 50.4176
},
{
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]
},
{
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{
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"erreur_inf": 36.8656
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"erreur_sup": 63.1344,
"erreur_inf": 56.8656
}
]
}
]
},
{
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{
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{
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"erreur_inf": 3.739
},
{
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"erreur_sup": 22.8357,
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{
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"erreur_sup": 0.9081,
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},
{
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"erreur_sup": 2.81,
"erreur_inf": 1.19
},
{
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"erreur_sup": 2.2033,
"erreur_inf": 0.7967
},
{
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"erreur_sup": 16.0076,
"erreur_inf": 11.9924
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{
"candidat": "Valérie Pécresse",
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"erreur_sup": 13.3458,
"erreur_inf": 9.6542
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"erreur_sup": 30.5978,
"erreur_inf": 25.4022
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
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"erreur_sup": 4.5633,
"erreur_inf": 2.4367
},
{
"candidat": "Eric Zemmour",
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"erreur_sup": 12.8103,
"erreur_inf": 9.1897
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
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"erreur_sup": 2.81,
"erreur_inf": 1.19
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
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"intentions": 0.5,
"erreur_sup": 0.9081,
"erreur_inf": 0.0919
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]
}
]
}
]
},
{
"id": "20210412_0414_elb",
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"fin_enquete": "2021-04-14",
"rolling": false,
"media": true,
"commanditaire": "BFM TV",
"lien": "http://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2021/avril/9114-p-elabe-bfmtv.pdf",
"echantillon": 1806,
"population": "Inscrits sur les listes électorales",
"tours": [
{
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{
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"candidats": [
{
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"erreur_sup": 30.273,
"erreur_inf": 25.727
},
{
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"erreur_sup": 7.2023,
"erreur_inf": 4.7977
},
{
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"erreur_sup": 6.1033,
"erreur_inf": 3.8967
},
{
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"erreur_sup": 1.5037,
"erreur_inf": 0.4963
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
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"erreur_sup": 1.5037,
"erreur_inf": 0.4963
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
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"erreur_sup": 3.8636,
"erreur_inf": 2.1364
},
{
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"erreur_sup": 0,
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},
{
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"erreur_inf": 9.416
},
{
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},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
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"erreur_sup": 2.7087,
"erreur_inf": 1.2913
},
{
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"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
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"erreur_sup": 10.4488,
"erreur_inf": 7.5512
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"erreur_sup": 29.2475,
"erreur_inf": 24.7525
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Christophe Lagarde",
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"erreur_inf": 1.2913
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]
},
{
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{
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"erreur_inf": 3.9033
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{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
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{
"candidat": "Jean-Christophe Lagarde",
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"erreur_sup": 1.5007,
"erreur_inf": 0.4993
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{
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"erreur_sup": 27.179,
"erreur_inf": 22.821
},
{
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"erreur_sup": 7.1951,
"erreur_inf": 4.8049
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{
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"erreur_sup": 0,
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},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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"erreur_sup": 6.0967,
"erreur_inf": 3.9033
},
{
"candidat": "François Asselineau",
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"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.5007,
"erreur_inf": 0.4993
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
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"erreur_sup": 28.2073,
"erreur_inf": 23.7927
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
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"erreur_sup": 12.5745,
"erreur_inf": 9.4255
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
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"erreur_sup": 1.5007,
"erreur_inf": 0.4993
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Frédéric Poisson",
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"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Xavier Bertrand",
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"erreur_sup": 16.7969,
"erreur_inf": 13.2031
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
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"erreur_sup": 2.7045,
"erreur_inf": 1.2955
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]
}
]
},
{
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{
"hypothese": null,
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"candidat": "Jean-Christophe Lagarde",
"parti": ["UDI"],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.8442,
"erreur_inf": 1.1558
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
"parti": ["Debout la France"],
"intentions": 6.5,
"erreur_sup": 7.9866,
"erreur_inf": 5.0134
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 26,
"erreur_sup": 28.645,
"erreur_inf": 23.355
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"parti": ["France insoumise", "Parti socialiste", "Parti communiste", "EE-LV"],
"intentions": 15,
"erreur_sup": 17.1532,
"erreur_inf": 12.8468
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 2.5,
"erreur_sup": 3.4415,
"erreur_inf": 1.5585
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 3.5,
"erreur_sup": 4.6082,
"erreur_inf": 2.3918
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 24,
"erreur_sup": 26.5754,
"erreur_inf": 21.4246
},
{
"candidat": "Xavier Bertrand",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 19,
"erreur_sup": 21.3656,
"erreur_inf": 16.6344
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse UG-Hidalgo",
"sous_echantillon": 1069.32,
"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Jean-Christophe Lagarde",
"parti": ["UDI"],
"intentions": 1.5,
"erreur_sup": 2.2286,
"erreur_inf": 0.7714
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 26,
"erreur_sup": 28.6291,
"erreur_inf": 23.3709
},
{
"candidat": "Xavier Bertrand",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 18,
"erreur_sup": 20.3027,
"erreur_inf": 15.6973
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
"parti": ["Lutte ouvrière"],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.8391,
"erreur_inf": 1.1609
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
"parti": ["France insoumise", "Parti communiste", "Parti socialiste", "EE-LV"],
"intentions": 13,
"erreur_sup": 15.0157,
"erreur_inf": 10.9843
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 25,
"erreur_sup": 27.5954,
"erreur_inf": 22.4046
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
"parti": ["Debout la France"],
"intentions": 7,
"erreur_sup": 8.5293,
"erreur_inf": 5.4707
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 3.5,
"erreur_sup": 4.6015,
"erreur_inf": 2.3985
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 4,
"erreur_sup": 5.1745,
"erreur_inf": 2.8255
}
]
},
{
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
"parti": ["EE-LV"],
"intentions": 8,
"erreur_sup": 9.6322,
"erreur_inf": 6.3678
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
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"intentions": 1,
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},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"parti": ["France insoumise"],
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"erreur_sup": 12.8825,
"erreur_inf": 9.1175
},
{
"candidat": "Olivier Faure",
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"intentions": 4,
"erreur_sup": 5.179,
"erreur_inf": 2.821
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 25,
"erreur_sup": 27.6052,
"erreur_inf": 22.3948
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.8423,
"erreur_inf": 1.1577
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Christophe Lagarde",
"parti": ["UDI"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.5986,
"erreur_inf": 0.4014
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 27,
"erreur_sup": 29.6711,
"erreur_inf": 24.3289
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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"erreur_sup": 8.5351,
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},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
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"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.5986,
"erreur_inf": 0.4014
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.8423,
"erreur_inf": 1.1577
},
{
"candidat": "Valérie Pécresse",
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"erreur_sup": 12.8825,
"erreur_inf": 9.1175
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]
},
{
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{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
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"erreur_sup": 2.822,
"erreur_inf": 1.178
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
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"intentions": 7,
"erreur_sup": 8.4981,
"erreur_inf": 5.5019
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.822,
"erreur_inf": 1.178
},
{
"candidat": "Xavier Bertrand",
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"intentions": 16,
"erreur_sup": 18.1525,
"erreur_inf": 13.8475
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
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"erreur_sup": 1.5842,
"erreur_inf": 0.4158
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"erreur_sup": 25.4709,
"erreur_inf": 20.5291
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
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},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
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"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.5842,
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},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 24,
"erreur_sup": 26.5076,
"erreur_inf": 21.4924
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Christophe Lagarde",
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"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.5842,
"erreur_inf": 0.4158
},
{
"candidat": "François Hollande",
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"intentions": 7,
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},
{
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{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
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{
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{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
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"erreur_sup": 5.1889,
"erreur_inf": 2.8111
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{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"erreur_sup": 28.6613,
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{
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"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6037,
"erreur_inf": 0.3963
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
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"erreur_inf": 23.3387
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{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
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"erreur_sup": 2.2375,
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},
{
"candidat": "Xavier Bertrand",
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"intentions": 1.5,
"erreur_sup": 2.2258,
"erreur_inf": 0.7742
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{
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{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
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"erreur_inf": 0.4059
},
{
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{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
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"erreur_inf": 1.5677
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
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},
{
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},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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"erreur_sup": 7.4181,
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]
},
{
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{
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},
{
"candidat": "Olivier Faure",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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"erreur_inf": 1.1714
},
{
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},
{
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"erreur_sup": 6.2899,
"erreur_inf": 3.7101
},
{
"candidat": "Xavier Bertrand",
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},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Christophe Lagarde",
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"erreur_inf": 0.4111
},
{
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]
},
{
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{
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},
{
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"erreur_sup": 2.8256,
"erreur_inf": 1.1744
},
{
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"erreur_sup": 25.4817,
"erreur_inf": 20.5183
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
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"erreur_sup": 12.8451,
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},
{
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"erreur_sup": 7.4005,
"erreur_inf": 4.5995
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Christophe Lagarde",
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"intentions": 0.5,
"erreur_sup": 0.9159,
"erreur_inf": 0.0841
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
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"erreur_sup": 10.6876,
"erreur_inf": 7.3124
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
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"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.5867,
"erreur_inf": 0.4133
},
{
"candidat": "Xavier Bertrand",
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"intentions": 15.5,
"erreur_sup": 17.6342,
"erreur_inf": 13.3658
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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"erreur_sup": 6.8444,
"erreur_inf": 4.1556
},
{
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},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
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"erreur_sup": 2.2168,
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}
]
}
]
}
]
},
{
"id": "20210608_0609_ifp",
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"debut_enquete": "2021-06-08",
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"media": true,
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"lien": "http://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2021/juin/9190-presidentielles-ifop-le-point.pdf",
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"tours": [
{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"erreur_sup": 29.4356,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"intentions": 0,
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},
{
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"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
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"erreur_inf": -0.0525
},
{
"candidat": "Eric Zemmour",
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},
{
"candidat": "Xavier Bertrand",
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},
{
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"erreur_inf": -0.0525
},
{
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}
]
}
]
}
]
},
{
"id": "20220413_0414_clu",
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"rolling": false,
"media": false,
"commanditaire": null,
"lien": "http://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2022/avril/9598-cluster17-rolling-hebdomadaire-sic-le-14-avril.pdf",
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"population": "Inscrits sur les listes électorales",
"tours": [
{
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{
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"candidats": [
{
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"erreur_sup": 54.91,
"erreur_inf": 51.09
},
{
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"erreur_sup": 48.91,
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]
}
]
}
]
},
{
"id": "20211115_1117_ow",
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"fin_enquete": "2021-11-17",
"rolling": false,
"media": true,
"commanditaire": "Les Echos, CNews, Radio Classique",
"lien": "http://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2021/novembre/9243-presi-track-3-ow-les-echos.pdf",
"echantillon": 1454,
"population": "Inscrits sur les listes électorales",
"tours": [
{
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{
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"candidats": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"erreur_inf": 3.7553
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
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"erreur_sup": 9.5494,
"erreur_inf": 6.4506
},
{
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"erreur_sup": 21.2405,
"erreur_inf": 16.7595
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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]
}
]
}
]
},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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"erreur_sup": 0,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"erreur_sup": 56.7476,
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}
]
}
]
},
{
"id": "20210127_0128_ips",
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"media": true,
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"population": "Certains d'aller voter",
"tours": [
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
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{
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{
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{
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{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
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{
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]
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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}
]
},
{
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{
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]
}
]
}
]
},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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}
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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]
}
]
}
]
},
{
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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]
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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]
}
]
}
]
},
{
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{
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{
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}
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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]
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Florian Philippot",
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"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6684,
"erreur_inf": 0.3316
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
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"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6684,
"erreur_inf": 0.3316
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Christophe Lagarde",
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"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Frédéric Poisson",
"parti": ["PCD"],
"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
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"erreur_sup": 2.9405,
"erreur_inf": 1.0595
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 26,
"erreur_sup": 28.9466,
"erreur_inf": 23.0534
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
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"intentions": 11,
"erreur_sup": 13.1019,
"erreur_inf": 8.8981
},
{
"candidat": "François Asselineau",
"parti": ["UPR"],
"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Valérie Pécresse",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 11,
"erreur_sup": 13.1019,
"erreur_inf": 8.8981
},
{
"candidat": "Arnaud Montebourg",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 3,
"erreur_sup": 4.1459,
"erreur_inf": 1.8541
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
"parti": ["Debout la France"],
"intentions": 4,
"erreur_sup": 5.3164,
"erreur_inf": 2.6836
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
"parti": ["Parti socialiste"],
"intentions": 5,
"erreur_sup": 6.4641,
"erreur_inf": 3.5359
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
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"intentions": 8,
"erreur_sup": 9.8224,
"erreur_inf": 6.1776
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"intentions": 27,
"erreur_sup": 29.9823,
"erreur_inf": 24.0177
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6684,
"erreur_inf": 0.3316
}
]
},
{
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "François Asselineau",
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"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Valérie Pécresse",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
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"erreur_sup": 13.0518,
"erreur_inf": 8.9482
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
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"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6525,
"erreur_inf": 0.3475
},
{
"candidat": "Arnaud Montebourg",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.9181,
"erreur_inf": 1.0819
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
"parti": ["Parti communiste"],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.9181,
"erreur_inf": 1.0819
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 15,
"erreur_sup": 17.3415,
"erreur_inf": 12.6585
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
"parti": ["Debout la France"],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.9181,
"erreur_inf": 1.0819
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
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"intentions": 5,
"erreur_sup": 6.4292,
"erreur_inf": 3.5708
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"intentions": 25,
"erreur_sup": 27.8395,
"erreur_inf": 22.1605
},
{
"candidat": "Eric Zemmour",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 17,
"erreur_sup": 19.4633,
"erreur_inf": 14.5367
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6525,
"erreur_inf": 0.3475
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Christophe Lagarde",
"parti": ["UDI"],
"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Frédéric Poisson",
"parti": ["PCD"],
"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
"parti": ["EE-LV"],
"intentions": 8,
"erreur_sup": 9.779,
"erreur_inf": 6.221
},
{
"candidat": "Florian Philippot",
"parti": ["Les Patriotes"],
"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"parti": ["France insoumise"],
"intentions": 11,
"erreur_sup": 13.0518,
"erreur_inf": 8.9482
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Bertrand",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Jean-Christophe Lagarde",
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"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
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"erreur_sup": 1.6487,
"erreur_inf": 0.3513
},
{
"candidat": "Xavier Bertrand",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 14,
"erreur_sup": 16.2621,
"erreur_inf": 11.7379
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
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"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6487,
"erreur_inf": 0.3513
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"erreur_sup": 26.7843,
"erreur_inf": 21.2157
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
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"intentions": 7,
"erreur_sup": 8.6634,
"erreur_inf": 5.3366
},
{
"candidat": "Arnaud Montebourg",
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"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.9127,
"erreur_inf": 1.0873
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
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"erreur_sup": 13.0398,
"erreur_inf": 8.9602
},
{
"candidat": "Eric Zemmour",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 17,
"erreur_sup": 19.4489,
"erreur_inf": 14.5511
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6487,
"erreur_inf": 0.3513
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 15,
"erreur_sup": 17.3279,
"erreur_inf": 12.6721
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Frédéric Poisson",
"parti": ["PCD"],
"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "François Asselineau",
"parti": ["UPR"],
"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Florian Philippot",
"parti": ["Les Patriotes"],
"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
"parti": ["Parti socialiste"],
"intentions": 5,
"erreur_sup": 6.4209,
"erreur_inf": 3.5791
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
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"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.9127,
"erreur_inf": 1.0873
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Bertrand sans Zemmour",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
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"erreur_sup": 6.4551,
"erreur_inf": 3.5449
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 26,
"erreur_sup": 28.9285,
"erreur_inf": 23.0715
},
{
"candidat": "Xavier Bertrand",
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"intentions": 15,
"erreur_sup": 17.384,
"erreur_inf": 12.616
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Christophe Lagarde",
"parti": ["UDI"],
"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
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"erreur_sup": 13.089,
"erreur_inf": 8.911
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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"intentions": 4,
"erreur_sup": 5.3083,
"erreur_inf": 2.6917
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Frédéric Poisson",
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"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Florian Philippot",
"parti": ["Les Patriotes"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6643,
"erreur_inf": 0.3357
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
"parti": ["EE-LV"],
"intentions": 7,
"erreur_sup": 8.7035,
"erreur_inf": 5.2965
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 25,
"erreur_sup": 27.891,
"erreur_inf": 22.109
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "François Asselineau",
"parti": ["UPR"],
"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
"parti": ["Parti communiste"],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.9347,
"erreur_inf": 1.0653
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6643,
"erreur_inf": 0.3357
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
"parti": ["Lutte ouvrière"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6643,
"erreur_inf": 0.3357
},
{
"candidat": "Arnaud Montebourg",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.9347,
"erreur_inf": 1.0653
}
]
}
]
},
{
"tour": "Deuxième tour",
"hypotheses": [
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Macron / Pécresse",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Valérie Pécresse",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 44,
"erreur_sup": 47.975,
"erreur_inf": 40.025
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 56,
"erreur_sup": 59.975,
"erreur_inf": 52.025
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Macron / Zemmour",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Eric Zemmour",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 43,
"erreur_sup": 46.6567,
"erreur_inf": 39.3433
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 57,
"erreur_sup": 60.6567,
"erreur_inf": 53.3433
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Macron / Mélenchon",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"parti": ["France insoumise"],
"intentions": 38,
"erreur_sup": 41.7573,
"erreur_inf": 34.2427
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 62,
"erreur_sup": 65.7573,
"erreur_inf": 58.2427
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Macron / Le Pen",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 46,
"erreur_sup": 49.6015,
"erreur_inf": 42.3985
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 54,
"erreur_sup": 57.6015,
"erreur_inf": 50.3985
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Macron / Bertrand",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 52,
"erreur_sup": 55.9661,
"erreur_inf": 48.0339
},
{
"candidat": "Xavier Bertrand",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 48,
"erreur_sup": 51.9661,
"erreur_inf": 44.0339
}
]
}
]
}
]
},
{
"id": "20210902_0903_ips",
"nom_institut": "Ipsos",
"debut_enquete": "2021-09-02",
"fin_enquete": "2021-09-03",
"rolling": false,
"media": true,
"commanditaire": "France Info, Le Parisien",
"lien": "http://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2021/septembre/9204-p-ipsos-le-parisien.pdf",
"echantillon": 490,
"population": "Certains d'aller voter",
"tours": [
{
"tour": "Premier tour",
"hypotheses": [
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Bertrand / Zemmour",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Arnaud Montebourg",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 3.314,
"erreur_inf": 0.686
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
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"intentions": 9,
"erreur_sup": 11.686,
"erreur_inf": 6.314
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
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"intentions": 1.5,
"erreur_sup": 2.6408,
"erreur_inf": 0.3592
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
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"intentions": 8,
"erreur_sup": 10.5463,
"erreur_inf": 5.4537
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 3.314,
"erreur_inf": 0.686
},
{
"candidat": "Eric Zemmour",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 8,
"erreur_sup": 10.5463,
"erreur_inf": 5.4537
},
{
"candidat": null,
"parti": ["« ext. gauche »"],
"intentions": 1.5,
"erreur_sup": 2.6408,
"erreur_inf": 0.3592
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 19,
"erreur_sup": 22.682,
"erreur_inf": 15.318
},
{
"candidat": "Xavier Bertrand",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 15,
"erreur_sup": 18.3513,
"erreur_inf": 11.6487
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"intentions": 24,
"erreur_sup": 28.0084,
"erreur_inf": 19.9916
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
"parti": ["EE-LV"],
"intentions": 10,
"erreur_sup": 12.8157,
"erreur_inf": 7.1843
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Bertrand",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"intentions": 25,
"erreur_sup": 29.1833,
"erreur_inf": 20.8167
},
{
"candidat": null,
"parti": ["« ext. gauche »"],
"intentions": 1.5,
"erreur_sup": 2.6743,
"erreur_inf": 0.3257
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
"parti": ["Parti communiste"],
"intentions": 1.5,
"erreur_sup": 2.6743,
"erreur_inf": 0.3257
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
"parti": ["Parti socialiste"],
"intentions": 9,
"erreur_sup": 11.7648,
"erreur_inf": 6.2352
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
"parti": ["Debout la France"],
"intentions": 4,
"erreur_sup": 5.8931,
"erreur_inf": 2.1069
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 22,
"erreur_sup": 26.002,
"erreur_inf": 17.998
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
"parti": ["EE-LV"],
"intentions": 10,
"erreur_sup": 12.8983,
"erreur_inf": 7.1017
},
{
"candidat": "Xavier Bertrand",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 17,
"erreur_sup": 20.629,
"erreur_inf": 13.371
},
{
"candidat": "Arnaud Montebourg",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 3.3525,
"erreur_inf": 0.6475
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"parti": ["France insoumise"],
"intentions": 8,
"erreur_sup": 10.6209,
"erreur_inf": 5.3791
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Barnier",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
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"erreur_sup": 11.7485,
"erreur_inf": 6.2515
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 23,
"erreur_sup": 27.0416,
"erreur_inf": 18.9584
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
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"intentions": 1.5,
"erreur_sup": 2.6674,
"erreur_inf": 0.3326
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
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"intentions": 11,
"erreur_sup": 14.005,
"erreur_inf": 7.995
},
{
"candidat": null,
"parti": ["« ext. gauche »"],
"intentions": 1.5,
"erreur_sup": 2.6674,
"erreur_inf": 0.3326
},
{
"candidat": "Michel Barnier",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 13,
"erreur_sup": 16.2298,
"erreur_inf": 9.7702
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 26,
"erreur_sup": 30.2126,
"erreur_inf": 21.7874
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"parti": ["France insoumise"],
"intentions": 8,
"erreur_sup": 10.6055,
"erreur_inf": 5.3945
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
"parti": ["Debout la France"],
"intentions": 5,
"erreur_sup": 7.0931,
"erreur_inf": 2.9069
},
{
"candidat": "Arnaud Montebourg",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 3.3445,
"erreur_inf": 0.6555
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Pécresse",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
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"intentions": 10,
"erreur_sup": 12.8812,
"erreur_inf": 7.1188
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
"parti": ["Parti communiste"],
"intentions": 1.5,
"erreur_sup": 2.6674,
"erreur_inf": 0.3326
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
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"intentions": 8,
"erreur_sup": 10.6055,
"erreur_inf": 5.3945
},
{
"candidat": "Arnaud Montebourg",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 3.3445,
"erreur_inf": 0.6555
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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"erreur_sup": 6.4909,
"erreur_inf": 2.5091
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
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"intentions": 22,
"erreur_sup": 25.9784,
"erreur_inf": 18.0216
},
{
"candidat": "Valérie Pécresse",
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"intentions": 16,
"erreur_sup": 19.5209,
"erreur_inf": 12.4791
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"intentions": 25.5,
"erreur_sup": 29.686,
"erreur_inf": 21.314
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"candidat": "Valérie Pécresse",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
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"erreur_sup": 40.4065,
"erreur_inf": 33.5935
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"erreur_sup": 66.4065,
"erreur_inf": 59.5935
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Macron / Mélenchon",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
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"intentions": 37,
"erreur_sup": 40.2091,
"erreur_inf": 33.7909
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 63,
"erreur_sup": 66.2091,
"erreur_inf": 59.7909
}
]
}
]
}
]
},
{
"id": "20210831_0902_ifp",
"nom_institut": "Ifop",
"debut_enquete": "2021-08-31",
"fin_enquete": "2021-09-02",
"rolling": false,
"media": true,
"commanditaire": "LCI, Le Figaro",
"lien": "http://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2021/septembre/9203-p-ifop-v3-le-figaro.pdf",
"echantillon": 1334,
"population": "Inscrits sur les listes électorales",
"tours": [
{
"tour": "Premier tour",
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{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Bertrand / Zemmour",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Xavier Bertrand",
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"erreur_sup": 17.2645,
"erreur_inf": 12.7355
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
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"erreur_sup": 10.8149,
"erreur_inf": 7.1851
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
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"intentions": 1.5,
"erreur_sup": 2.2709,
"erreur_inf": 0.7291
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
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"erreur_sup": 8.6181,
"erreur_inf": 5.3819
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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"erreur_sup": 4.0819,
"erreur_inf": 1.9181
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
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"erreur_sup": 2.2709,
"erreur_inf": 0.7291
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
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"erreur_sup": 24.6271,
"erreur_inf": 19.3729
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
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"erreur_sup": 2.8879,
"erreur_inf": 1.1121
},
{
"candidat": "Eric Zemmour",
"parti": [""],
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"erreur_sup": 8.6181,
"erreur_inf": 5.3819
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"erreur_sup": 26.7085,
"erreur_inf": 21.2915
},
{
"candidat": null,
"parti": ["EE-LV"],
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"erreur_sup": 9.1704,
"erreur_inf": 5.8296
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
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"erreur_sup": 0.9473,
"erreur_inf": 0.0527
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Frédéric Poisson",
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"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Juvin",
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{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
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"erreur_sup": 2.9213,
"erreur_inf": 1.0787
},
{
"candidat": null,
"parti": ["EE-LV"],
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"erreur_sup": 9.7853,
"erreur_inf": 6.2147
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
"parti": [""],
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"erreur_sup": 2.9213,
"erreur_inf": 1.0787
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
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"erreur_sup": 10.8833,
"erreur_inf": 7.1167
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"intentions": 29,
"erreur_sup": 31.986,
"erreur_inf": 26.014
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
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"erreur_sup": 10.8833,
"erreur_inf": 7.1167
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
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"erreur_sup": 3.5274,
"erreur_inf": 1.4726
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
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"erreur_sup": 0.9642,
"erreur_inf": 0.0358
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 27,
"erreur_sup": 29.9215,
"erreur_inf": 24.0785
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Frédéric Poisson",
"parti": ["PCD"],
"intentions": 0.5,
"erreur_sup": 0.9642,
"erreur_inf": 0.0358
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Juvin",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 5,
"erreur_sup": 6.4342,
"erreur_inf": 3.5658
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
"parti": ["Debout la France"],
"intentions": 5.5,
"erreur_sup": 7.0003,
"erreur_inf": 3.9997
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Bertrand",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Jean-Frédéric Poisson",
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"intentions": 0.5,
"erreur_sup": 0.947,
"erreur_inf": 0.053
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
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"erreur_sup": 0.947,
"erreur_inf": 0.053
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
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"erreur_sup": 2.8873,
"erreur_inf": 1.1127
},
{
"candidat": "Xavier Bertrand",
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"erreur_sup": 19.3806,
"erreur_inf": 14.6194
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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"erreur_sup": 5.2419,
"erreur_inf": 2.7581
},
{
"candidat": null,
"parti": ["EE-LV"],
"intentions": 8,
"erreur_sup": 9.7193,
"erreur_inf": 6.2807
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
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"intentions": 9.5,
"erreur_sup": 11.3583,
"erreur_inf": 7.6417
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
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"intentions": 1.5,
"erreur_sup": 2.2703,
"erreur_inf": 0.7297
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
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"intentions": 7,
"erreur_sup": 8.617,
"erreur_inf": 5.383
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
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"erreur_sup": 26.7066,
"erreur_inf": 21.2934
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
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"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.8873,
"erreur_inf": 1.1127
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"erreur_sup": 26.7066,
"erreur_inf": 21.2934
}
]
},
{
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{
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"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 26,
"erreur_sup": 28.8337,
"erreur_inf": 23.1663
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Frédéric Poisson",
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"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
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"erreur_sup": 2.2853,
"erreur_inf": 0.7147
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
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"erreur_sup": 11.9381,
"erreur_inf": 8.0619
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
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"intentions": 2.5,
"erreur_sup": 3.5086,
"erreur_inf": 1.4914
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
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"intentions": 2.5,
"erreur_sup": 3.5086,
"erreur_inf": 1.4914
},
{
"candidat": null,
"parti": ["EE-LV"],
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"erreur_sup": 9.7526,
"erreur_inf": 6.2474
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"intentions": 29,
"erreur_sup": 31.9314,
"erreur_inf": 26.0686
},
{
"candidat": "Eric Ciotti",
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"intentions": 7,
"erreur_sup": 8.6483,
"erreur_inf": 5.3517
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
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"intentions": 0.5,
"erreur_sup": 0.9557,
"erreur_inf": 0.0443
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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"intentions": 4,
"erreur_sup": 5.266,
"erreur_inf": 2.734
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
"parti": ["Parti socialiste"],
"intentions": 9,
"erreur_sup": 10.8488,
"erreur_inf": 7.1512
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Pécresse / Zemmour",
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{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
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"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.635,
"erreur_inf": 0.365
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 1.5,
"erreur_sup": 2.2758,
"erreur_inf": 0.7242
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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"intentions": 3.5,
"erreur_sup": 4.6729,
"erreur_inf": 2.3271
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
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"erreur_sup": 10.8265,
"erreur_inf": 7.1735
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
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"intentions": 21,
"erreur_sup": 23.5995,
"erreur_inf": 18.4005
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
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"intentions": 8.5,
"erreur_sup": 10.2799,
"erreur_inf": 6.7201
},
{
"candidat": "Eric Zemmour",
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"erreur_sup": 7.5157,
"erreur_inf": 4.4843
},
{
"candidat": "Valérie Pécresse",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 12,
"erreur_sup": 14.074,
"erreur_inf": 9.926
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
"parti": ["Lutte ouvrière"],
"intentions": 0.5,
"erreur_sup": 0.9502,
"erreur_inf": 0.0498
},
{
"candidat": null,
"parti": ["EE-LV"],
"intentions": 8,
"erreur_sup": 9.7314,
"erreur_inf": 6.2686
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Frédéric Poisson",
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"intentions": 0.5,
"erreur_sup": 0.9502,
"erreur_inf": 0.0498
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
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"intentions": 2.5,
"erreur_sup": 3.4964,
"erreur_inf": 1.5036
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 26,
"erreur_sup": 28.7994,
"erreur_inf": 23.2006
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Pécresse",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
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"intentions": 1.5,
"erreur_sup": 2.2808,
"erreur_inf": 0.7192
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
"parti": ["Parti socialiste"],
"intentions": 8,
"erreur_sup": 9.7426,
"erreur_inf": 6.2574
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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"intentions": 4,
"erreur_sup": 5.2587,
"erreur_inf": 2.7413
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"parti": ["France insoumise"],
"intentions": 9,
"erreur_sup": 10.8382,
"erreur_inf": 7.1618
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
"parti": ["Lutte ouvrière"],
"intentions": 0.5,
"erreur_sup": 0.9531,
"erreur_inf": 0.0469
},
{
"candidat": null,
"parti": ["EE-LV"],
"intentions": 8,
"erreur_sup": 9.7426,
"erreur_inf": 6.2574
},
{
"candidat": "Valérie Pécresse",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 14,
"erreur_sup": 16.2288,
"erreur_inf": 11.7712
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 1.5,
"erreur_sup": 2.2808,
"erreur_inf": 0.7192
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 26,
"erreur_sup": 28.8174,
"erreur_inf": 23.1826
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
"parti": ["Parti communiste"],
"intentions": 2.5,
"erreur_sup": 3.5028,
"erreur_inf": 1.4972
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Frédéric Poisson",
"parti": ["PCD"],
"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 25,
"erreur_sup": 27.7813,
"erreur_inf": 22.2187
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Barnier",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 1.5,
"erreur_sup": 2.2876,
"erreur_inf": 0.7124
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Frédéric Poisson",
"parti": ["PCD"],
"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
"parti": ["Debout la France"],
"intentions": 3,
"erreur_sup": 4.1053,
"erreur_inf": 1.8947
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
"parti": ["Parti socialiste"],
"intentions": 8,
"erreur_sup": 9.7577,
"erreur_inf": 6.2423
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
"parti": ["Lutte ouvrière"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6447,
"erreur_inf": 0.3553
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 26,
"erreur_sup": 28.842,
"erreur_inf": 23.158
},
{
"candidat": "Michel Barnier",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 11,
"erreur_sup": 13.0273,
"erreur_inf": 8.9727
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.9071,
"erreur_inf": 1.0929
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
"parti": ["Parti communiste"],
"intentions": 2.5,
"erreur_sup": 3.5116,
"erreur_inf": 1.4884
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 28,
"erreur_sup": 30.9091,
"erreur_inf": 25.0909
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"parti": ["France insoumise"],
"intentions": 9,
"erreur_sup": 10.8542,
"erreur_inf": 7.1458
},
{
"candidat": null,
"parti": ["EE-LV"],
"intentions": 8,
"erreur_sup": 9.7577,
"erreur_inf": 6.2423
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Bertrand / Montebourg",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.8854,
"erreur_inf": 1.1146
},
{
"candidat": "Florian Philippot",
"parti": ["Les Patriotes"],
"intentions": 1.5,
"erreur_sup": 2.2687,
"erreur_inf": 0.7313
},
{
"candidat": "Xavier Bertrand",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 16,
"erreur_sup": 18.3185,
"erreur_inf": 13.6815
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 23,
"erreur_sup": 25.6615,
"erreur_inf": 20.3385
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
"parti": ["Parti communiste"],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.8854,
"erreur_inf": 1.1146
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
"parti": ["Lutte ouvrière"],
"intentions": 0.5,
"erreur_sup": 0.9461,
"erreur_inf": 0.0539
},
{
"candidat": "Arnaud Montebourg",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 3,
"erreur_sup": 4.0788,
"erreur_inf": 1.9212
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 1.5,
"erreur_sup": 2.2687,
"erreur_inf": 0.7313
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
"parti": ["Debout la France"],
"intentions": 3,
"erreur_sup": 4.0788,
"erreur_inf": 1.9212
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"parti": ["France insoumise"],
"intentions": 8,
"erreur_sup": 9.7157,
"erreur_inf": 6.2843
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Frédéric Poisson",
"parti": ["PCD"],
"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
"parti": ["Parti socialiste"],
"intentions": 8.5,
"erreur_sup": 10.2637,
"erreur_inf": 6.7363
},
{
"candidat": null,
"parti": ["EE-LV"],
"intentions": 8,
"erreur_sup": 9.7157,
"erreur_inf": 6.2843
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 23,
"erreur_sup": 25.6615,
"erreur_inf": 20.3385
}
]
}
]
},
{
"tour": "Deuxième tour",
"hypotheses": [
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Macron / Pécresse",
"sous_echantillon": 717.692,
"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Valérie Pécresse",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 50,
"erreur_sup": 53.6581,
"erreur_inf": 46.3419
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 50,
"erreur_sup": 53.6581,
"erreur_inf": 46.3419
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Macron / Le Pen",
"sous_echantillon": 868.434,
"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 56,
"erreur_sup": 59.3015,
"erreur_inf": 52.6985
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 44,
"erreur_sup": 47.3015,
"erreur_inf": 40.6985
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Macron / Bertrand",
"sous_echantillon": 767.05,
"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Xavier Bertrand",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 53,
"erreur_sup": 56.5321,
"erreur_inf": 49.4679
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 47,
"erreur_sup": 50.5321,
"erreur_inf": 43.4679
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Pécresse / Le Pen",
"sous_echantillon": 851.092,
"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 42,
"erreur_sup": 45.3159,
"erreur_inf": 38.6841
},
{
"candidat": "Valérie Pécresse",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 58,
"erreur_sup": 61.3159,
"erreur_inf": 54.6841
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Bertrand / Le Pen",
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"intentions": 26,
"erreur_sup": 28.7293,
"erreur_inf": 23.2707
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
"parti": ["Lutte ouvrière"],
"intentions": 0.5,
"erreur_sup": 0.9389,
"erreur_inf": 0.0611
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 29,
"erreur_sup": 31.8234,
"erreur_inf": 26.1766
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
"parti": ["Debout la France"],
"intentions": 5,
"erreur_sup": 6.3561,
"erreur_inf": 3.6439
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
"parti": ["Parti socialiste"],
"intentions": 6,
"erreur_sup": 7.4777,
"erreur_inf": 4.5223
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Frédéric Poisson",
"parti": ["PCD"],
"intentions": 0.5,
"erreur_sup": 0.9389,
"erreur_inf": 0.0611
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Christophe Lagarde",
"parti": ["UDI"],
"intentions": 0.5,
"erreur_sup": 0.9389,
"erreur_inf": 0.0611
},
{
"candidat": "Valérie Pécresse",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 10,
"erreur_sup": 11.8667,
"erreur_inf": 8.1333
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6191,
"erreur_inf": 0.3809
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
"parti": ["Parti communiste"],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.8711,
"erreur_inf": 1.1289
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
"parti": ["EE-LV"],
"intentions": 6,
"erreur_sup": 7.4777,
"erreur_inf": 4.5223
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"parti": ["France insoumise"],
"intentions": 12,
"erreur_sup": 14.022,
"erreur_inf": 9.978
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Michel Barnier",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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"intentions": 6,
"erreur_sup": 7.4974,
"erreur_inf": 4.5026
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 29,
"erreur_sup": 31.861,
"erreur_inf": 26.139
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
"parti": ["Parti communiste"],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.8827,
"erreur_inf": 1.1173
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Frédéric Poisson",
"parti": ["PCD"],
"intentions": 0.5,
"erreur_sup": 0.9447,
"erreur_inf": 0.0553
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Christophe Lagarde",
"parti": ["UDI"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6273,
"erreur_inf": 0.3727
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
"parti": ["Parti socialiste"],
"intentions": 6,
"erreur_sup": 7.4974,
"erreur_inf": 4.5026
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
"parti": ["EE-LV"],
"intentions": 5,
"erreur_sup": 6.3741,
"erreur_inf": 3.6259
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 27,
"erreur_sup": 29.7992,
"erreur_inf": 24.2008
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.8827,
"erreur_inf": 1.1173
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"parti": ["France insoumise"],
"intentions": 12,
"erreur_sup": 14.0489,
"erreur_inf": 9.9511
},
{
"candidat": "Michel Barnier",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 8,
"erreur_sup": 9.7105,
"erreur_inf": 6.2895
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6273,
"erreur_inf": 0.3727
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
"parti": ["Lutte ouvrière"],
"intentions": 0.5,
"erreur_sup": 0.9447,
"erreur_inf": 0.0553
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Bruno Retailleau",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Jean-Christophe Lagarde",
"parti": ["UDI"],
"intentions": 1.5,
"erreur_sup": 2.2757,
"erreur_inf": 0.7243
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 29,
"erreur_sup": 31.8959,
"erreur_inf": 26.1041
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
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"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.8935,
"erreur_inf": 1.1065
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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"intentions": 6,
"erreur_sup": 7.5156,
"erreur_inf": 4.4844
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.635,
"erreur_inf": 0.365
},
{
"candidat": "Bruno Retailleau",
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"intentions": 6,
"erreur_sup": 7.5156,
"erreur_inf": 4.4844
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
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"intentions": 6,
"erreur_sup": 7.5156,
"erreur_inf": 4.4844
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
"parti": ["EE-LV"],
"intentions": 6,
"erreur_sup": 7.5156,
"erreur_inf": 4.4844
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.8935,
"erreur_inf": 1.1065
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
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"intentions": 11,
"erreur_sup": 12.9969,
"erreur_inf": 9.0031
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Frédéric Poisson",
"parti": ["PCD"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.635,
"erreur_inf": 0.365
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"intentions": 28,
"erreur_sup": 30.8655,
"erreur_inf": 25.1345
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
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"intentions": 0.5,
"erreur_sup": 0.9501,
"erreur_inf": 0.0499
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Xavier Bertrand",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 27,
"erreur_sup": 29.7913,
"erreur_inf": 24.2087
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
"parti": ["Lutte ouvrière"],
"intentions": 0.5,
"erreur_sup": 0.9435,
"erreur_inf": 0.0565
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
"parti": ["EE-LV"],
"intentions": 6,
"erreur_sup": 7.4931,
"erreur_inf": 4.5069
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6256,
"erreur_inf": 0.3744
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
"parti": ["Parti socialiste"],
"intentions": 6,
"erreur_sup": 7.4931,
"erreur_inf": 4.5069
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
"parti": ["Parti communiste"],
"intentions": 1.5,
"erreur_sup": 2.2642,
"erreur_inf": 0.7358
},
{
"candidat": "Xavier Bertrand",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 15,
"erreur_sup": 17.245,
"erreur_inf": 12.755
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"parti": ["France insoumise"],
"intentions": 11,
"erreur_sup": 12.9672,
"erreur_inf": 9.0328
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Christophe Lagarde",
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"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Frédéric Poisson",
"parti": ["PCD"],
"intentions": 0.5,
"erreur_sup": 0.9435,
"erreur_inf": 0.0565
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 1.5,
"erreur_sup": 2.2642,
"erreur_inf": 0.7358
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 25,
"erreur_sup": 27.7225,
"erreur_inf": 22.2775
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
"parti": ["Debout la France"],
"intentions": 5,
"erreur_sup": 6.3703,
"erreur_inf": 3.6297
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Laurent Wauquiez",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"parti": ["France insoumise"],
"intentions": 12,
"erreur_sup": 14.065,
"erreur_inf": 9.935
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6323,
"erreur_inf": 0.3677
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
"parti": ["Parti communiste"],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.8896,
"erreur_inf": 1.1104
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
"parti": ["Parti socialiste"],
"intentions": 7,
"erreur_sup": 8.6213,
"erreur_inf": 5.3787
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Christophe Lagarde",
"parti": ["UDI"],
"intentions": 0.5,
"erreur_sup": 0.9482,
"erreur_inf": 0.0518
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
"parti": ["Lutte ouvrière"],
"intentions": 0.5,
"erreur_sup": 0.9482,
"erreur_inf": 0.0518
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 0.5,
"erreur_sup": 0.9482,
"erreur_inf": 0.0518
},
{
"candidat": "Laurent Wauquiez",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 8,
"erreur_sup": 9.7239,
"erreur_inf": 6.2761
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 30,
"erreur_sup": 32.912,
"erreur_inf": 27.088
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Frédéric Poisson",
"parti": ["PCD"],
"intentions": 0.5,
"erreur_sup": 0.9482,
"erreur_inf": 0.0518
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 27,
"erreur_sup": 29.8211,
"erreur_inf": 24.1789
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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"intentions": 5,
"erreur_sup": 6.3849,
"erreur_inf": 3.6151
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
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"intentions": 6,
"erreur_sup": 7.5091,
"erreur_inf": 4.4909
}
]
}
]
},
{
"tour": "Deuxième tour",
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{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Macron / Le Pen",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 46,
"erreur_sup": 49.2277,
"erreur_inf": 42.7723
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 54,
"erreur_sup": 57.2277,
"erreur_inf": 50.7723
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Macron / Bertrand",
"sous_echantillon": 809.622,
"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Xavier Bertrand",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 49,
"erreur_sup": 52.4435,
"erreur_inf": 45.5565
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 51,
"erreur_sup": 54.4435,
"erreur_inf": 47.5565
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Le Pen / Bertrand",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Xavier Bertrand",
"parti": ["LRM", "Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 60,
"erreur_sup": 63.131,
"erreur_inf": 56.869
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 40,
"erreur_sup": 43.131,
"erreur_inf": 36.869
}
]
}
]
}
]
},
{
"id": "20211105_1108_hi",
"nom_institut": "Harris Interactive",
"debut_enquete": "2021-11-05",
"fin_enquete": "2021-11-08",
"rolling": false,
"media": true,
"commanditaire": "Challenges",
"lien": "http://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2021/novembre/9235-p-hi-challenges-v21.pdf",
"echantillon": 2001,
"population": "Inscrits sur les listes électorales",
"tours": [
{
"tour": "Deuxième tour",
"hypotheses": [
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Macron / Le Pen",
"sous_echantillon": 1420.71,
"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 55,
"erreur_sup": 57.587,
"erreur_inf": 52.413
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 45,
"erreur_sup": 47.587,
"erreur_inf": 42.413
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Macron / Pécresse",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Valérie Pécresse",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 43,
"erreur_sup": 45.8483,
"erreur_inf": 40.1517
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"intentions": 57,
"erreur_sup": 59.8483,
"erreur_inf": 54.1517
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Macron / Zemmour",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"intentions": 58,
"erreur_sup": 60.6034,
"erreur_inf": 55.3966
},
{
"candidat": "Eric Zemmour",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 42,
"erreur_sup": 44.6034,
"erreur_inf": 39.3966
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Macron / Bertrand",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Xavier Bertrand",
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"intentions": 45,
"erreur_sup": 47.8141,
"erreur_inf": 42.1859
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"intentions": 55,
"erreur_sup": 57.8141,
"erreur_inf": 52.1859
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Macron / Mélenchon",
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"candidats": [
{
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"intentions": 37,
"erreur_sup": 39.6866,
"erreur_inf": 34.3134
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"intentions": 63,
"erreur_sup": 65.6866,
"erreur_inf": 60.3134
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Macron / Barnier",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"intentions": 58,
"erreur_sup": 60.8644,
"erreur_inf": 55.1356
},
{
"candidat": "Michel Barnier",
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"intentions": 42,
"erreur_sup": 44.8644,
"erreur_inf": 39.1356
}
]
}
]
},
{
"tour": "Premier tour",
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{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Barnier",
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"candidats": [
{
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"erreur_sup": 1.4701,
"erreur_inf": 0.5299
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
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"erreur_sup": 10.3522,
"erreur_inf": 7.6478
},
{
"candidat": "François Asselineau",
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"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
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"erreur_sup": 4.9259,
"erreur_inf": 3.0741
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Christophe Lagarde",
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"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Eric Zemmour",
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"intentions": 19,
"erreur_sup": 20.8535,
"erreur_inf": 17.1465
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
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"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.4701,
"erreur_inf": 0.5299
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"intentions": 24,
"erreur_sup": 26.0179,
"erreur_inf": 21.9821
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
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"erreur_sup": 16.6871,
"erreur_inf": 13.3129
},
{
"candidat": "Michel Barnier",
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"intentions": 10,
"erreur_sup": 11.4174,
"erreur_inf": 8.5826
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
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"intentions": 10,
"erreur_sup": 11.4174,
"erreur_inf": 8.5826
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.4701,
"erreur_inf": 0.5299
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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"erreur_sup": 2.6615,
"erreur_inf": 1.3385
},
{
"candidat": "Arnaud Montebourg",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.6615,
"erreur_inf": 1.3385
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
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"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.6615,
"erreur_inf": 1.3385
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Pécresse",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
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"erreur_sup": 10.3522,
"erreur_inf": 7.6478
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
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"erreur_sup": 2.6615,
"erreur_inf": 1.3385
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
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"erreur_sup": 1.4701,
"erreur_inf": 0.5299
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
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"erreur_sup": 0,
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},
{
"candidat": "Florian Philippot",
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"erreur_sup": 1.4701,
"erreur_inf": 0.5299
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
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"erreur_sup": 4.9259,
"erreur_inf": 3.0741
},
{
"candidat": "Arnaud Montebourg",
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"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.6615,
"erreur_inf": 1.3385
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
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"erreur_sup": 17.7321,
"erreur_inf": 14.2679
},
{
"candidat": "Eric Zemmour",
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"erreur_sup": 19.8152,
"erreur_inf": 16.1848
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
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"erreur_sup": 11.4174,
"erreur_inf": 8.5826
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
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"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.4701,
"erreur_inf": 0.5299
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Christophe Lagarde",
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"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Valérie Pécresse",
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"erreur_sup": 11.4174,
"erreur_inf": 8.5826
},
{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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]
}
]
},
{
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{
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]
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{
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{
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{
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]
},
{
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{
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}
]
}
]
}
]
},
{
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"media": true,
"commanditaire": "Journal du Dimanche, Sud Radio",
"lien": "http://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2021/avril/9113-p-ifop-jddpdf.pdf",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"erreur_inf": 0.5311
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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"erreur_inf": 8.5863
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{
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{
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]
},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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},
{
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},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
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{
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{
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},
{
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]
},
{
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{
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{
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},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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{
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{
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{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
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{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
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{
"candidat": "Valérie Pécresse",
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"erreur_inf": 10.4687
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"erreur_sup": 29.0921,
"erreur_inf": 24.9079
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
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"erreur_sup": 2.6597,
"erreur_inf": 1.3403
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]
},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
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"erreur_inf": 2.1961
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{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
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"erreur_sup": 8.2023,
"erreur_inf": 5.7977
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Christophe Lagarde",
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"erreur_sup": 1.4689,
"erreur_inf": 0.5311
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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"erreur_inf": 4.8809
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
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"erreur_sup": 29.0921,
"erreur_inf": 24.9079
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{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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{
"candidat": "Bruno Retailleau",
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]
},
{
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"erreur_sup": 28.067,
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{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
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"erreur_sup": 2.0728,
"erreur_inf": 0.9272
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{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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{
"candidat": "Jean-Frédéric Poisson",
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},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Christophe Lagarde",
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"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
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},
{
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},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
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"erreur_inf": 7.6514
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
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"erreur_inf": 11.8897
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{
"candidat": "Xavier Bertrand",
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"erreur_sup": 20.8486,
"erreur_inf": 17.1514
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]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Montebourg-Jadot",
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"erreur_inf": 16.1896
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{
"candidat": "Jean-Christophe Lagarde",
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"erreur_inf": 0.1676
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"candidat": "Florian Philippot",
"parti": ["Les Patriotes"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6544,
"erreur_inf": 0.3456
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6544,
"erreur_inf": 0.3456
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 25,
"erreur_sup": 27.848,
"erreur_inf": 22.152
},
{
"candidat": "Arnaud Montebourg",
"parti": ["Parti socialiste"],
"intentions": 5,
"erreur_sup": 6.4334,
"erreur_inf": 3.5666
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
"parti": ["Debout la France"],
"intentions": 4,
"erreur_sup": 5.2888,
"erreur_inf": 2.7112
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Christophe Lagarde",
"parti": ["UDI"],
"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6544,
"erreur_inf": 0.3456
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
"parti": ["Lutte ouvrière"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6544,
"erreur_inf": 0.3456
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
"parti": ["Parti communiste"],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.9208,
"erreur_inf": 1.0792
},
{
"candidat": "Xavier Bertrand",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 16,
"erreur_sup": 18.4112,
"erreur_inf": 13.5888
}
]
},
{
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"sous_echantillon": 855.57,
"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Jean-Christophe Lagarde",
"parti": ["UDI"],
"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"erreur_sup": 33.0707,
"erreur_inf": 26.9293
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 26,
"erreur_sup": 28.9392,
"erreur_inf": 23.0608
},
{
"candidat": "Eric Ciotti",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 6,
"erreur_sup": 7.5914,
"erreur_inf": 4.4086
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6667,
"erreur_inf": 0.3333
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
"parti": ["Parti socialiste"],
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"erreur_sup": 8.7097,
"erreur_inf": 5.2903
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
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"intentions": 3,
"erreur_sup": 4.1431,
"erreur_inf": 1.8569
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6667,
"erreur_inf": 0.3333
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
"parti": ["Lutte ouvrière"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6667,
"erreur_inf": 0.3333
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
"parti": ["Debout la France"],
"intentions": 4,
"erreur_sup": 5.3131,
"erreur_inf": 2.6869
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
"parti": ["EE-LV"],
"intentions": 6,
"erreur_sup": 7.5914,
"erreur_inf": 4.4086
},
{
"candidat": "François Asselineau",
"parti": ["UPR"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6667,
"erreur_inf": 0.3333
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"parti": ["France insoumise"],
"intentions": 12,
"erreur_sup": 14.1775,
"erreur_inf": 9.8225
},
{
"candidat": "Florian Philippot",
"parti": ["Les Patriotes"],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.9381,
"erreur_inf": 1.0619
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]
},
{
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6584,
"erreur_inf": 0.3416
},
{
"candidat": "Valérie Pécresse",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 14,
"erreur_sup": 16.2962,
"erreur_inf": 11.7038
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{
"candidat": "Florian Philippot",
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"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6584,
"erreur_inf": 0.3416
},
{
"candidat": "François Asselineau",
"parti": ["UPR"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6584,
"erreur_inf": 0.3416
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
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"intentions": 7,
"erreur_sup": 8.6885,
"erreur_inf": 5.3115
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
"parti": ["EE-LV"],
"intentions": 6,
"erreur_sup": 7.5716,
"erreur_inf": 4.4284
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
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"erreur_sup": 1.6584,
"erreur_inf": 0.3416
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Christophe Lagarde",
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"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"parti": ["France insoumise"],
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"erreur_sup": 14.1505,
"erreur_inf": 9.8495
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{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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"intentions": 4,
"erreur_sup": 5.2968,
"erreur_inf": 2.7032
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{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"erreur_sup": 28.9027,
"erreur_inf": 23.0973
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 24,
"erreur_sup": 26.8263,
"erreur_inf": 21.1737
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{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
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"erreur_sup": 2.9265,
"erreur_inf": 1.0735
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{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6584,
"erreur_inf": 0.3416
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]
},
{
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
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"erreur_inf": 0.3456
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
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"intentions": 12,
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"erreur_inf": 9.8627
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{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 23,
"erreur_sup": 25.7679,
"erreur_inf": 20.2321
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{
"candidat": "Xavier Bertrand",
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"intentions": 16,
"erreur_sup": 18.4112,
"erreur_inf": 13.5888
},
{
"candidat": "Florian Philippot",
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"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6544,
"erreur_inf": 0.3456
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6544,
"erreur_inf": 0.3456
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6544,
"erreur_inf": 0.3456
},
{
"candidat": "François Asselineau",
"parti": ["UPR"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6544,
"erreur_inf": 0.3456
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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"intentions": 4,
"erreur_sup": 5.2888,
"erreur_inf": 2.7112
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"intentions": 24,
"erreur_sup": 26.809,
"erreur_inf": 21.191
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
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"intentions": 3,
"erreur_sup": 4.122,
"erreur_inf": 1.878
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
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"intentions": 6,
"erreur_sup": 7.562,
"erreur_inf": 4.438
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
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"erreur_sup": 8.6781,
"erreur_inf": 5.3219
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{
"candidat": "Jean-Christophe Lagarde",
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"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
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]
}
]
},
{
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{
"hypothese": null,
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"candidats": [
{
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"erreur_sup": 48.5931,
"erreur_inf": 41.4069
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"erreur_sup": 58.5931,
"erreur_inf": 51.4069
}
]
}
]
}
]
},
{
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"population": "Inscrits sur les listes électorales",
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{
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{
"hypothese": null,
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"erreur_inf": 0.0672
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{
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{
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"erreur_sup": 5.772,
"erreur_inf": 3.228
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{
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"erreur_sup": 3.4579,
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{
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"erreur_sup": 1.6105,
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},
{
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"erreur_inf": 1.141
}
]
}
]
},
{
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{
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{
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{
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]
},
{
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{
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"erreur_sup": 59.5538,
"erreur_inf": 52.4462
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{
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]
}
]
}
]
},
{
"id": "20211109_1112_clu",
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"media": false,
"commanditaire": null,
"lien": "https://cluster17.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/2021115_Cluster17_Site_Notice-Technique_Rolling-Hebdomadaire.pdf",
"echantillon": 2540,
"population": "Inscrits sur les listes électorales",
"tours": [
{
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"hypotheses": [
{
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"candidats": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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"erreur_sup": 3.8045,
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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]
}
]
}
]
},
{
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"media": true,
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"lien": "http://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2022/fevrier/9335-rpw-ow-kea-partners-les-echos-radio-classique-3-fev.pdf",
"echantillon": 1609,
"population": "Inscrits sur les listes électorales",
"tours": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"erreur_sup": 15.8177,
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{
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"erreur_sup": 11.5716,
"erreur_inf": 8.4284
},
{
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"erreur_inf": 0.4788
},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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}
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},
{
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{
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"erreur_inf": 49.8775
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{
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]
},
{
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{
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"erreur_inf": 36.0884
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{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"erreur_sup": 63.9116,
"erreur_inf": 58.0884
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]
},
{
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{
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{
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"erreur_sup": 58.8388,
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]
}
]
}
]
},
{
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"sous_echantillon": 959.21,
"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6297,
"erreur_inf": 0.3703
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
"parti": ["Debout la France"],
"intentions": 2.5,
"erreur_sup": 3.488,
"erreur_inf": 1.512
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{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"parti": ["France insoumise"],
"intentions": 7.5,
"erreur_sup": 9.1669,
"erreur_inf": 5.8331
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6297,
"erreur_inf": 0.3703
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
"parti": ["Parti communiste"],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.886,
"erreur_inf": 1.114
},
{
"candidat": "Arnaud Montebourg",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 4,
"erreur_sup": 5.2401,
"erreur_inf": 2.7599
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 26,
"erreur_sup": 28.7759,
"erreur_inf": 23.2241
},
{
"candidat": "Xavier Bertrand",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 18,
"erreur_sup": 20.4313,
"erreur_inf": 15.5687
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 23,
"erreur_sup": 25.6632,
"erreur_inf": 20.3368
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
"parti": ["Lutte ouvrière"],
"intentions": 0.5,
"erreur_sup": 0.9464,
"erreur_inf": 0.0536
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
"parti": ["Parti socialiste"],
"intentions": 6,
"erreur_sup": 7.5029,
"erreur_inf": 4.4971
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
"parti": ["EE-LV"],
"intentions": 8.5,
"erreur_sup": 10.2649,
"erreur_inf": 6.7351
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Bertrand / Zemmour",
"sous_echantillon": 990.283,
"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6197,
"erreur_inf": 0.3803
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"parti": ["France insoumise"],
"intentions": 7,
"erreur_sup": 8.5892,
"erreur_inf": 5.4108
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
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"intentions": 5.5,
"erreur_sup": 6.92,
"erreur_inf": 4.08
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
"parti": ["EE-LV"],
"intentions": 8,
"erreur_sup": 9.6897,
"erreur_inf": 6.3103
},
{
"candidat": "Arnaud Montebourg",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 3.5,
"erreur_sup": 4.6447,
"erreur_inf": 2.3553
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 24,
"erreur_sup": 26.66,
"erreur_inf": 21.34
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 18,
"erreur_sup": 20.3929,
"erreur_inf": 15.6071
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
"parti": ["Parti communiste"],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.872,
"erreur_inf": 1.128
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
"parti": ["Debout la France"],
"intentions": 2.5,
"erreur_sup": 3.4724,
"erreur_inf": 1.5276
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
"parti": ["Lutte ouvrière"],
"intentions": 0.5,
"erreur_sup": 0.9393,
"erreur_inf": 0.0607
},
{
"candidat": "Eric Zemmour",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 12,
"erreur_sup": 14.024,
"erreur_inf": 9.976
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6197,
"erreur_inf": 0.3803
},
{
"candidat": "Xavier Bertrand",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 15,
"erreur_sup": 17.224,
"erreur_inf": 12.776
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Ciotti / Zemmour",
"sous_echantillon": 947.051,
"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Eric Ciotti",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 5,
"erreur_sup": 6.3881,
"erreur_inf": 3.6119
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
"parti": ["Lutte ouvrière"],
"intentions": 0.5,
"erreur_sup": 0.9492,
"erreur_inf": 0.0508
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"parti": ["France insoumise"],
"intentions": 7.5,
"erreur_sup": 9.1775,
"erreur_inf": 5.8225
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
"parti": ["EE-LV"],
"intentions": 8,
"erreur_sup": 9.7279,
"erreur_inf": 6.2721
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
"parti": ["Parti socialiste"],
"intentions": 5.5,
"erreur_sup": 6.952,
"erreur_inf": 4.048
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 21,
"erreur_sup": 23.5941,
"erreur_inf": 18.4059
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
"parti": ["Parti communiste"],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.8917,
"erreur_inf": 1.1083
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
"parti": ["Debout la France"],
"intentions": 3,
"erreur_sup": 4.0865,
"erreur_inf": 1.9135
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6337,
"erreur_inf": 0.3663
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6337,
"erreur_inf": 0.3663
},
{
"candidat": "Arnaud Montebourg",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 3.5,
"erreur_sup": 4.6705,
"erreur_inf": 2.3295
},
{
"candidat": "Eric Zemmour",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 15,
"erreur_sup": 17.2742,
"erreur_inf": 12.7258
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 27,
"erreur_sup": 29.8276,
"erreur_inf": 24.1724
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Barnier",
"sous_echantillon": 933.541,
"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
"parti": ["Parti socialiste"],
"intentions": 6,
"erreur_sup": 7.5235,
"erreur_inf": 4.4765
},
{
"candidat": "Michel Barnier",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 12,
"erreur_sup": 14.0846,
"erreur_inf": 9.9154
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.8981,
"erreur_inf": 1.1019
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
"parti": ["Parti communiste"],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.8981,
"erreur_inf": 1.1019
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"parti": ["France insoumise"],
"intentions": 8,
"erreur_sup": 9.7403,
"erreur_inf": 6.2597
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 27,
"erreur_sup": 29.848,
"erreur_inf": 24.152
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
"parti": ["EE-LV"],
"intentions": 9,
"erreur_sup": 10.8358,
"erreur_inf": 7.1642
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
"parti": ["Debout la France"],
"intentions": 4,
"erreur_sup": 5.2571,
"erreur_inf": 2.7429
},
{
"candidat": "Arnaud Montebourg",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 3.5,
"erreur_sup": 4.6789,
"erreur_inf": 2.3211
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6383,
"erreur_inf": 0.3617
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
"parti": ["Lutte ouvrière"],
"intentions": 0.5,
"erreur_sup": 0.9525,
"erreur_inf": 0.0475
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 25,
"erreur_sup": 27.7777,
"erreur_inf": 22.2223
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Pécresse",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6364,
"erreur_inf": 0.3636
},
{
"candidat": "Arnaud Montebourg",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 4,
"erreur_sup": 5.2534,
"erreur_inf": 2.7466
},
{
"candidat": "Valérie Pécresse",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 13,
"erreur_sup": 15.1511,
"erreur_inf": 10.8489
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
"parti": ["Lutte ouvrière"],
"intentions": 0.5,
"erreur_sup": 0.9512,
"erreur_inf": 0.0488
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
"parti": ["EE-LV"],
"intentions": 8.5,
"erreur_sup": 10.2838,
"erreur_inf": 6.7162
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"parti": ["France insoumise"],
"intentions": 8,
"erreur_sup": 9.7353,
"erreur_inf": 6.2647
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6364,
"erreur_inf": 0.3636
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 27,
"erreur_sup": 29.8397,
"erreur_inf": 24.1603
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 25,
"erreur_sup": 27.7697,
"erreur_inf": 22.2303
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
"parti": ["Parti communiste"],
"intentions": 2.5,
"erreur_sup": 3.4986,
"erreur_inf": 1.5014
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
"parti": ["Parti socialiste"],
"intentions": 6,
"erreur_sup": 7.5191,
"erreur_inf": 4.4809
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
"parti": ["Debout la France"],
"intentions": 3.5,
"erreur_sup": 4.6755,
"erreur_inf": 2.3245
}
]
}
]
},
{
"tour": "Deuxième tour",
"hypotheses": [
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Macron / Pécresse",
"sous_echantillon": 737.646,
"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 59,
"erreur_sup": 62.5494,
"erreur_inf": 55.4506
},
{
"candidat": "Valérie Pécresse",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 41,
"erreur_sup": 44.5494,
"erreur_inf": 37.4506
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Macron / Le Pen",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 58,
"erreur_sup": 61.1893,
"erreur_inf": 54.8107
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 42,
"erreur_sup": 45.1893,
"erreur_inf": 38.8107
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Le Pen / Bertrand",
"sous_echantillon": 901.117,
"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 38,
"erreur_sup": 41.1692,
"erreur_inf": 34.8308
},
{
"candidat": "Xavier Bertrand",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 62,
"erreur_sup": 65.1692,
"erreur_inf": 58.8308
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Le Pen / Pécresse",
"sous_echantillon": 852.481,
"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 42,
"erreur_sup": 45.3132,
"erreur_inf": 38.6868
},
{
"candidat": "Valérie Pécresse",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 58,
"erreur_sup": 61.3132,
"erreur_inf": 54.6868
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Macron / Bertrand",
"sous_echantillon": 767.368,
"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 51,
"erreur_sup": 54.537,
"erreur_inf": 47.463
},
{
"candidat": "Xavier Bertrand",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 49,
"erreur_sup": 52.537,
"erreur_inf": 45.463
}
]
}
]
}
]
},
{
"id": "20220218_0221_hi",
"nom_institut": "Harris Interactive",
"debut_enquete": "2022-02-18",
"fin_enquete": "2022-02-21",
"rolling": false,
"media": true,
"commanditaire": "Challenges",
"lien": "http://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2022/fevrier/9389-harris-interactive-challenges-v34-le-23-fevrier.pdf",
"echantillon": 2018,
"population": "Inscrits sur les listes électorales",
"tours": [
{
"tour": "Premier tour",
"hypotheses": [
{
"hypothese": null,
"sous_echantillon": 1755.66,
"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
"parti": ["Lutte ouvrière"],
"intentions": 0.5,
"erreur_sup": 0.8299,
"erreur_inf": 0.1701
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
"parti": ["EE-LV"],
"intentions": 5,
"erreur_sup": 6.0195,
"erreur_inf": 3.9805
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"parti": ["France insoumise"],
"intentions": 12,
"erreur_sup": 13.5201,
"erreur_inf": 10.4799
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
"parti": ["Debout la France"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.4654,
"erreur_inf": 0.5346
},
{
"candidat": "Hélène Thouy",
"parti": ["Parti animaliste"],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.6549,
"erreur_inf": 1.3451
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 24,
"erreur_sup": 25.9978,
"erreur_inf": 22.0022
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
"parti": ["Parti communiste"],
"intentions": 4,
"erreur_sup": 4.9166,
"erreur_inf": 3.0834
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
"parti": ["Résistons"],
"intentions": 0.5,
"erreur_sup": 0.8299,
"erreur_inf": 0.1701
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 17,
"erreur_sup": 18.7571,
"erreur_inf": 15.2429
},
{
"candidat": "Eric Zemmour",
"parti": ["Reconquête"],
"intentions": 15.5,
"erreur_sup": 17.1929,
"erreur_inf": 13.8071
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 0.5,
"erreur_sup": 0.8299,
"erreur_inf": 0.1701
},
{
"candidat": "Christiane Taubira",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 2.5,
"erreur_sup": 3.2303,
"erreur_inf": 1.7697
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
"parti": ["Parti socialiste"],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.6549,
"erreur_inf": 1.3451
},
{
"candidat": "Valérie Pécresse",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 13.5,
"erreur_sup": 15.0985,
"erreur_inf": 11.9015
}
]
}
]
},
{
"tour": "Deuxième tour",
"hypotheses": [
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Macron / Zemmour",
"sous_echantillon": 1392.42,
"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 62,
"erreur_sup": 64.5495,
"erreur_inf": 59.4505
},
{
"candidat": "Eric Zemmour",
"parti": ["Reconquête"],
"intentions": 38,
"erreur_sup": 40.5495,
"erreur_inf": 35.4505
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Macron / Pécresse",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Valérie Pécresse",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 43,
"erreur_sup": 45.7657,
"erreur_inf": 40.2343
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"intentions": 57,
"erreur_sup": 59.7657,
"erreur_inf": 54.2343
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Macron / Le Pen",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"intentions": 55,
"erreur_sup": 57.5233,
"erreur_inf": 52.4767
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 45,
"erreur_sup": 47.5233,
"erreur_inf": 42.4767
}
]
}
]
}
]
},
{
"id": "20220308_0311r_ow",
"nom_institut": "Opinion Way",
"debut_enquete": "2022-03-08",
"fin_enquete": "2022-03-11",
"rolling": true,
"media": true,
"commanditaire": "Les Echos, Radio Classique, Kea Partners",
"lien": "http://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2022/mars/9447-opinionway-kea-partners-les-echos-radio-classique-11-mars.pdf",
"echantillon": 1639,
"population": "Inscrits sur les listes électorales",
"tours": [
{
"tour": "Premier tour",
"hypotheses": [
{
"hypothese": null,
"sous_echantillon": 1425.93,
"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Eric Zemmour",
"parti": ["Reconquête"],
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"erreur_sup": 13.6867,
"erreur_inf": 10.3133
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
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"intentions": 12,
"erreur_sup": 13.6867,
"erreur_inf": 10.3133
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 30,
"erreur_sup": 32.3786,
"erreur_inf": 27.6214
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
"parti": ["Debout la France"],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.7267,
"erreur_inf": 1.2733
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
"parti": ["Résistons"],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.7267,
"erreur_inf": 1.2733
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
"parti": ["EE-LV"],
"intentions": 6,
"erreur_sup": 7.2327,
"erreur_inf": 4.7673
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
"parti": ["Parti communiste"],
"intentions": 3,
"erreur_sup": 3.8854,
"erreur_inf": 2.1146
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 17,
"erreur_sup": 18.9497,
"erreur_inf": 15.0503
},
{
"candidat": "Valérie Pécresse",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 12,
"erreur_sup": 13.6867,
"erreur_inf": 10.3133
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
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"erreur_sup": 3.8854,
"erreur_inf": 2.1146
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.5164,
"erreur_inf": 0.4836
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
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"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
}
]
}
]
},
{
"tour": "Deuxième tour",
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{
"hypothese": null,
"sous_echantillon": 1245.64,
"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"erreur_sup": 61.7314,
"erreur_inf": 56.2686
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
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"erreur_sup": 43.7314,
"erreur_inf": 38.2686
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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]
},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"erreur_inf": 0.8962
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
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"erreur_sup": 1.483,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
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{
"candidat": "Florian Philippot",
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{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
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{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
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{
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{
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]
}
]
}
]
},
{
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{
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},
{
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{
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}
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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]
},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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"erreur_inf": 0.8867
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"candidat": "Arnaud Montebourg",
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{
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"erreur_sup": 28.3984,
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{
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"erreur_sup": 9.5671,
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{
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"erreur_inf": 0.546
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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}
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{
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},
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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},
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{
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]
}
]
}
]
},
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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}
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},
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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]
}
]
}
]
},
{
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"media": true,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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}
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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]
}
]
}
]
},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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]
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"erreur_inf": 10.5272
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{
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{
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{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
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{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
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"erreur_inf": 1.5687
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{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"erreur_sup": 30.6784,
"erreur_inf": 25.3216
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{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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"erreur_inf": 0.4065
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]
}
]
},
{
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{
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{
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{
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]
},
{
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{
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"erreur_sup": 65.1759,
"erreur_inf": 58.8241
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{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
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"erreur_inf": 34.8241
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]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Macron / Le Pen",
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{
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"erreur_sup": 48.1199,
"erreur_inf": 41.8801
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{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"erreur_sup": 58.1199,
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]
},
{
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{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"intentions": 65,
"erreur_sup": 68.1066,
"erreur_inf": 61.8934
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{
"candidat": "Eric Zemmour",
"parti": ["Reconquête"],
"intentions": 35,
"erreur_sup": 38.1066,
"erreur_inf": 31.8934
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]
}
]
}
]
},
{
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"rolling": false,
"media": true,
"commanditaire": "LCI, Le Figaro",
"lien": "http://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2021/novembre/9234-ifop-le-figaro-v6.pdf",
"echantillon": 1358,
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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"erreur_sup": 62.2497,
"erreur_inf": 55.7503
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{
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"erreur_sup": 44.2497,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"erreur_inf": 1.1169
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{
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"erreur_sup": 2.8831,
"erreur_inf": 1.1169
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{
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"erreur_sup": 20.4233,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"parti": ["Les Patriotes"],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.6426,
"erreur_inf": 1.3574
},
{
"candidat": "Valérie Pécresse",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 11,
"erreur_sup": 12.4363,
"erreur_inf": 9.5637
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
"parti": ["Parti communiste"],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.6426,
"erreur_inf": 1.3574
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.4567,
"erreur_inf": 0.5433
},
{
"candidat": "Eric Zemmour",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 16,
"erreur_sup": 17.6828,
"erreur_inf": 14.3172
},
{
"candidat": "Arnaud Montebourg",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.4567,
"erreur_inf": 0.5433
},
{
"candidat": "François Asselineau",
"parti": ["UPR"],
"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
"parti": ["Debout la France"],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.6426,
"erreur_inf": 1.3574
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 24,
"erreur_sup": 25.9604,
"erreur_inf": 22.0396
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"parti": ["France insoumise"],
"intentions": 10,
"erreur_sup": 11.3771,
"erreur_inf": 8.6229
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 16,
"erreur_sup": 17.6828,
"erreur_inf": 14.3172
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
"parti": ["EE-LV"],
"intentions": 9,
"erreur_sup": 10.3137,
"erreur_inf": 7.6863
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
"parti": ["Lutte ouvrière"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.4567,
"erreur_inf": 0.5433
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
"parti": ["Parti socialiste"],
"intentions": 5,
"erreur_sup": 6.0004,
"erreur_inf": 3.9996
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Juvin",
"sous_echantillon": 1780.8,
"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 30,
"erreur_sup": 32.1284,
"erreur_inf": 27.8716
},
{
"candidat": "Arnaud Montebourg",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.4621,
"erreur_inf": 0.5379
},
{
"candidat": "François Asselineau",
"parti": ["UPR"],
"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
"parti": ["EE-LV"],
"intentions": 9,
"erreur_sup": 10.3292,
"erreur_inf": 7.6708
},
{
"candidat": "Eric Zemmour",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 17,
"erreur_sup": 18.7447,
"erreur_inf": 15.2553
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
"parti": ["Parti socialiste"],
"intentions": 5,
"erreur_sup": 6.0123,
"erreur_inf": 3.9877
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"parti": ["France insoumise"],
"intentions": 10,
"erreur_sup": 11.3934,
"erreur_inf": 8.6066
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Juvin",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 4,
"erreur_sup": 4.9102,
"erreur_inf": 3.0898
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 17,
"erreur_sup": 18.7447,
"erreur_inf": 15.2553
},
{
"candidat": "Florian Philippot",
"parti": ["Les Patriotes"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.4621,
"erreur_inf": 0.5379
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.4621,
"erreur_inf": 0.5379
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
"parti": ["Lutte ouvrière"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.4621,
"erreur_inf": 0.5379
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.6502,
"erreur_inf": 1.3498
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
"parti": ["Parti communiste"],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.6502,
"erreur_inf": 1.3498
}
]
},
{
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 17,
"erreur_sup": 18.7447,
"erreur_inf": 15.2553
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
"parti": ["Lutte ouvrière"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.4621,
"erreur_inf": 0.5379
},
{
"candidat": "Florian Philippot",
"parti": ["Les Patriotes"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.4621,
"erreur_inf": 0.5379
},
{
"candidat": "Eric Zemmour",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 17,
"erreur_sup": 18.7447,
"erreur_inf": 15.2553
},
{
"candidat": "Arnaud Montebourg",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.4621,
"erreur_inf": 0.5379
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"parti": ["France insoumise"],
"intentions": 10,
"erreur_sup": 11.3934,
"erreur_inf": 8.6066
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
"parti": ["Parti socialiste"],
"intentions": 5,
"erreur_sup": 6.0123,
"erreur_inf": 3.9877
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
"parti": ["EE-LV"],
"intentions": 9,
"erreur_sup": 10.3292,
"erreur_inf": 7.6708
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.4621,
"erreur_inf": 0.5379
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 29,
"erreur_sup": 31.1075,
"erreur_inf": 26.8925
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
"parti": ["Debout la France"],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.6502,
"erreur_inf": 1.3498
},
{
"candidat": "François Asselineau",
"parti": ["UPR"],
"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
"parti": ["Parti communiste"],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.6502,
"erreur_inf": 1.3498
},
{
"candidat": "Eric Ciotti",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 5,
"erreur_sup": 6.0123,
"erreur_inf": 3.9877
}
]
},
{
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 16,
"erreur_sup": 17.6636,
"erreur_inf": 14.3364
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
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"intentions": 10,
"erreur_sup": 11.3613,
"erreur_inf": 8.6387
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.4515,
"erreur_inf": 0.5485
},
{
"candidat": "Arnaud Montebourg",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.4515,
"erreur_inf": 0.5485
},
{
"candidat": "Eric Zemmour",
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"erreur_sup": 17.6636,
"erreur_inf": 14.3364
},
{
"candidat": "Florian Philippot",
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"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.4515,
"erreur_inf": 0.5485
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
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"intentions": 8,
"erreur_sup": 9.2311,
"erreur_inf": 6.7689
},
{
"candidat": "Xavier Bertrand",
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"intentions": 14,
"erreur_sup": 15.5746,
"erreur_inf": 12.4254
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.6353,
"erreur_inf": 1.3647
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
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"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.6353,
"erreur_inf": 1.3647
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
"parti": ["Lutte ouvrière"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.4515,
"erreur_inf": 0.5485
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 23,
"erreur_sup": 24.9097,
"erreur_inf": 21.0903
},
{
"candidat": "François Asselineau",
"parti": ["UPR"],
"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
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"intentions": 5,
"erreur_sup": 5.989,
"erreur_inf": 4.011
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Barnier",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Arnaud Montebourg",
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"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.4541,
"erreur_inf": 0.5459
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.6389,
"erreur_inf": 1.3611
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
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"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.6389,
"erreur_inf": 1.3611
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 16,
"erreur_sup": 17.6731,
"erreur_inf": 14.3269
},
{
"candidat": "Michel Barnier",
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"intentions": 10,
"erreur_sup": 11.3691,
"erreur_inf": 8.6309
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
"parti": ["Lutte ouvrière"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.4541,
"erreur_inf": 0.5459
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 24,
"erreur_sup": 25.9491,
"erreur_inf": 22.0509
},
{
"candidat": "Eric Zemmour",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 17,
"erreur_sup": 18.7143,
"erreur_inf": 15.2857
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
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"intentions": 9,
"erreur_sup": 10.3061,
"erreur_inf": 7.6939
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"parti": ["France insoumise"],
"intentions": 10,
"erreur_sup": 11.3691,
"erreur_inf": 8.6309
},
{
"candidat": "Florian Philippot",
"parti": ["Les Patriotes"],
"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.6389,
"erreur_inf": 1.3611
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
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"intentions": 5,
"erreur_sup": 5.9947,
"erreur_inf": 4.0053
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.4541,
"erreur_inf": 0.5459
},
{
"candidat": "François Asselineau",
"parti": ["UPR"],
"intentions": 0,
"erreur_sup": 0,
"erreur_inf": 0
}
]
}
]
},
{
"tour": "Deuxième tour",
"hypotheses": [
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Macron / Mélenchon",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 64,
"erreur_sup": 66.5541,
"erreur_inf": 61.4459
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"parti": ["France insoumise"],
"intentions": 36,
"erreur_sup": 38.5541,
"erreur_inf": 33.4459
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Macron / Pécresse",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 58,
"erreur_sup": 60.7124,
"erreur_inf": 55.2876
},
{
"candidat": "Valérie Pécresse",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 42,
"erreur_sup": 44.7124,
"erreur_inf": 39.2876
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Macron / Le Pen",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 55,
"erreur_sup": 57.4958,
"erreur_inf": 52.5042
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 45,
"erreur_sup": 47.4958,
"erreur_inf": 42.5042
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Macron / Zemmour",
"sous_echantillon": 1441.6,
"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 59,
"erreur_sup": 61.5389,
"erreur_inf": 56.4611
},
{
"candidat": "Eric Zemmour",
"parti": [""],
"intentions": 41,
"erreur_sup": 43.5389,
"erreur_inf": 38.4611
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Macron / Bertrand",
"sous_echantillon": 1314.4,
"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 54,
"erreur_sup": 56.6944,
"erreur_inf": 51.3056
},
{
"candidat": "Xavier Bertrand",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 46,
"erreur_sup": 48.6944,
"erreur_inf": 43.3056
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Macron / Barnier",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Michel Barnier",
"parti": ["Les Républicains"],
"intentions": 41,
"erreur_sup": 43.7491,
"erreur_inf": 38.2509
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
"parti": ["LRM"],
"intentions": 59,
"erreur_sup": 61.7491,
"erreur_inf": 56.2509
}
]
}
]
}
]
},
{
"id": "20220404_0406r_ips",
"nom_institut": "Ipsos",
"debut_enquete": "2022-04-04",
"fin_enquete": "2022-04-06",
"rolling": true,
"media": true,
"commanditaire": "Le Parisien, France Info",
"lien": "https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2022-04/Ipsos-Barometre_2022-06-04.pdf",
"echantillon": 1031,
"population": "Certains d'aller voter",
"tours": [
{
"tour": "Premier tour",
"hypotheses": [
{
"hypothese": null,
"sous_echantillon": 979.45,
"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"erreur_sup": 29.7804,
"erreur_inf": 24.2196
},
{
"candidat": "Valérie Pécresse",
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"erreur_sup": 9.699,
"erreur_inf": 6.301
},
{
"candidat": "Fabien Roussel",
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"erreur_sup": 4.651,
"erreur_inf": 2.349
},
{
"candidat": "Eric Zemmour",
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"intentions": 8.5,
"erreur_sup": 10.2466,
"erreur_inf": 6.7534
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
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"intentions": 22,
"erreur_sup": 24.5943,
"erreur_inf": 19.4057
},
{
"candidat": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
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"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.8768,
"erreur_inf": 1.1232
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
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"intentions": 2,
"erreur_sup": 2.8768,
"erreur_inf": 1.1232
},
{
"candidat": "Yannick Jadot",
"parti": ["EE-LV"],
"intentions": 6,
"erreur_sup": 7.4873,
"erreur_inf": 4.5127
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
"parti": ["Lutte ouvrière"],
"intentions": 0.5,
"erreur_sup": 0.9417,
"erreur_inf": 0.0583
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
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"intentions": 2.5,
"erreur_sup": 3.4778,
"erreur_inf": 1.5222
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
"parti": ["NPA"],
"intentions": 1,
"erreur_sup": 1.6231,
"erreur_inf": 0.3769
},
{
"candidat": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"parti": ["France insoumise"],
"intentions": 17,
"erreur_sup": 19.3525,
"erreur_inf": 14.6475
}
]
}
]
},
{
"tour": "Deuxième tour",
"hypotheses": [
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Macron / Le Pen",
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"candidats": [
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
"parti": ["Rassemblement national"],
"intentions": 46,
"erreur_sup": 49.4229,
"erreur_inf": 42.5771
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"intentions": 54,
"erreur_sup": 57.4229,
"erreur_inf": 50.5771
}
]
},
{
"hypothese": "Hypothèse Macron / Mélenchon",
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"candidats": [
{
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"intentions": 40,
"erreur_sup": 43.5242,
"erreur_inf": 36.4758
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"erreur_sup": 63.5242,
"erreur_inf": 56.4758
}
]
}
]
}
]
},
{
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"media": true,
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"echantillon": 997,
"population": "Certains d'aller voter",
"tours": [
{
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"hypotheses": [
{
"hypothese": null,
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"candidats": [
{
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"erreur_sup": 13.014,
"erreur_inf": 8.986
},
{
"candidat": "Philippe Poutou",
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"erreur_sup": 1.6404,
"erreur_inf": 0.3596
},
{
"candidat": "Marine Le Pen",
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"intentions": 17.5,
"erreur_sup": 19.9458,
"erreur_inf": 15.0542
},
{
"candidat": "Emmanuel Macron",
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"erreur_sup": 32.4354,
"erreur_inf": 26.5646
},
{
"candidat": "Nathalie Arthaud",
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"erreur_sup": 1.6404,
"erreur_inf": 0.3596
},
{
"candidat": "Anne Hidalgo",
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"erreur_sup": 3.5049,
"erreur_inf": 1.4951
},
{
"candidat": "Jean Lassalle",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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]
}
]
},
{
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{
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]
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{
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{
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{
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{
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]
},
{
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{
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]
},
{
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{
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{
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]
}
]
}
]
},
{
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"media": true,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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]
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{
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]
}
]
}
]
},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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